Calming the Chaos: Scenario Planning for Unpredictable Business Environments

The global business landscape looks more like a pressure map than a forecast right now. Geopolitical shifts, inflation, tariffs and rapid tech advances are all testing leaders’ adaptability and agility. A new Deloitte Global survey of boards and C-suites in 59 countries proves this point: More than half (55%) are focused on geopolitical and economic volatility; 50% are worried about security and cybersecurity; and 42% are navigating rapid technological advancements and digital disruption. 

To address the volatility, 71% of companies are using more strategic risk oversight and scenario planning, while more than half (53%) are promoting a culture of agility and quick decision-making. “Encouragingly, the survey shows progress in respondent boards’ efforts to collaborate more with the C-suite on strategy development and scenario planning — two operational focus areas that, according to leaders we spoke with, are among the most important for building resilience,” the survey authors write. 

“Nearly three-quarters of respondents say they’ve been spending more time on both this year,” they continue, “although only 26% say they’ve ‘significantly’ increased the time devoted to these activities.”

These findings suggest that scenario planning could be a bigger priority for leadership teams. While most boards and executives recognize the value of such planning, the practice often takes a backseat to more immediate concerns. Making it part of routine strategy discussions helps leaders stay focused, prepared and ready to act when conditions change.

What is scenario planning?

Scenario planning means different things to different organizations, but it shares a common goal: to prepare for what might happen next. More specifically, Workday defines it as “a process businesses use to identify key future uncertainties, evaluate how potential scenarios could impact the business, and create flexible plans that can adapt to different outcomes.”

In practice, scenario planning tests how market shifts or competitive pressure could affect growth goals, identifies operational risks tied to resources or workforce capacity, and examines how new regulations or technologies might reshape business models. It also addresses changes in customer behavior and demand patterns, and provides leaders with a clearer view of how those shifts may impact their future operations.

A skill to sharpen, not a box to check

Scenario planning isn’t new, but its relevance has changed in the modern business environment. With disruption now a constant factor in decision-making, leaders should treat it as an essential part of strategy rather than just an occasional exercise. Kate DeGon, founder and CEO at ChangeSync, Inc., in Mesa, Arizona, says she’s seeing positive momentum in this direction, but also sees companies using reactive approaches that can backfire quickly as new uncertainties emerge.

“Change is hitting organizations from every direction and at a pace that’s much quicker than any company has experienced in the past,” says DeGon, a long-time change management expert and former president of the Association of Change Management Professionals (ACMP). “Whether it’s policy shifts, labor shortages or artificial intelligence (AI) implementations, leaders who plan only for one future wind up ‘reacting’ versus effectively leading through those changes.”    

Other common missteps include taking a top-down approach and overlooking the people who see problems first. For example, a manufacturer may focus specifically on strategy without including input from frontline employees who spot early signs of trouble through production slowdowns, talent gaps, or changing customer preferences. “If their perspective isn’t included,” she says, “scenario planning becomes less accurate and less useful.”
Treating scenario planning as a one-time strategy exercise instead of linking it to real decisions is another problem area. Organizations put a lot of time into building out scenarios, says DeGon, but never connect those scenarios to meaningful actions. “The most effective leaders treat scenario planning as a skill to sharpen,” she adds, “not a box to check.”

Turning scenario planning into practice

To make scenario planning useful, leaders should start small and focus on what matters most. DeGon suggests identifying a few key drivers of change, such as regulation, technology, or workforce shifts, then building three or four plausible futures around each. The goal isn’t to predict outcomes but to decide what actions to take if they occur.

Here’s how it looks in action: DeGon’s team worked with a public safety agency during a full technology replacement that affected everyone from 911 dispatchers to field officers. They mapped out where the rollout could fail, including how new dispatch software might perform on its first day. By thinking through those situations early, the organization planned training, communication and risk steps before the change took effect.

DeGon says executives can mimic this model by taking these well-timed steps:

This month: Reframe how your organization approaches scenario planning. Present it as a confidence-building exercise, not a crisis drill. Use visuals and clear decision points to make the process tangible.

This quarter: Bring the right people into the room early. Involve those closest to daily operations or customers so the scenarios reflect real conditions, not assumptions.

This year: Build participation into the culture. When employees help shape possible futures, they invest more in executing the plan if those scenarios unfold. That involvement strengthens alignment and reduces the fatigue that often follows change.

By focusing on the forces that matter most and testing decisions under varying conditions, organizations can better prepare for volatility. “When teams aren’t surprised by change because they’ve thought through different scenarios,” DeGon concludes, “leading through it becomes second nature.”