Pivot Points: Economic Insight & Scenario Planning for Turbulent Times
This episode of The Executive Edge features a narrated read of two timely Executive articles focused on economic planning for 2026 and scenario planning in an increasingly volatile global business environment.
Together, these pieces explore why traditional forecasting is no longer enough—and how leaders can stay ahead by focusing on flexibility, early planning, and disciplined decision-making amid uncertainty.
Economist: Planning for ’26 is About Flexibility
In the first article, Lauren Seidel Baker, economist and senior consulting speaker at ETR Economics (Crowe), shares her perspective on the economic forces shaping 2026.
Baker explains why growth is expected to continue, though at a slower and more muted pace, and cautions leaders against relying on “muscle memory” from previous growth cycles. She highlights the risks of backward-looking sentiment and emphasizes the importance of identifying top drivers early—especially labor availability, capacity constraints, inflation, and margin compression.
Key themes include:
- Why the next growth cycle will be gradual, not immediate
- The danger of applying past playbooks to a different economic environment
- Labor shortages and capacity limits as strategic constraints
- Inflation’s return and its impact on margins and pricing strategies
- Why flexibility within a long-term strategy matters more than reactive shifts
Calming the Chaos: Scenario Planning
The second article examines why today’s global business landscape feels more like a pressure map than a forecast, drawing on insights from the Deloitte Global Survey of Boards and C-Suites and change management experts.
The article outlines how geopolitical risk, inflation, cybersecurity threats, and rapid technological change are forcing organizations to rethink how they prepare for uncertainty. While many companies recognize the value of scenario planning, the piece argues it’s most effective when treated as an ongoing leadership skill—not a one-time exercise.
Key takeaways include:
- Why scenario planning should be embedded into routine strategy discussions
- Common mistakes, including top-down planning and disconnected execution
- The value of involving frontline employees in identifying early warning signs
- How to focus on a few critical drivers instead of endless hypotheticals
- Turning scenarios into actionable decisions, not static documents
Why It Matters
Taken together, these articles reinforce a clear message: leaders don’t need perfect predictions—they need preparedness. Organizations that identify key drivers early, remain disciplined about margins and capacity, and practice scenario planning as a continuous capability will be better positioned to navigate volatility and lead with confidence
About the Author
Geert De Lombaerde
Contributor
A native of Belgium, Geert De Lombaerde joined EndeavorB2B in September 2021 to cover public companies, markets, and economic trends primarily for IndustryWeek, FleetOwner, Oil & Gas Journal, T&D World, and Healthcare Innovation. His work focuses on strategy, leadership, capital spending, and mergers and acquisitions, and he also works with Endeavor Business Intelligence on surveys and data projects.
Geert has been in business journalism since the mid-1990s. With a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri, he began his reporting career at the Business Courier in Cincinnati, initially covering retail and the courts before shifting to banking, insurance, and investing. He later was managing editor and editor of the Nashville Business Journal before being named editor of the Nashville Post in 2008. He led a team that helped grow the Post's online traffic by an average of more than 15% annually before joining Endeavor.
Bridget McCrea
Contributor
Bridget McCrea is the award-winning author of Your First Business Blueprint and recipient of a 2025 ASBPE Award of Excellence. Her articles have appeared in Business Insider, Black Enterprise, Hispanic Business, International Business Times and various other publications. With a focus on business, management and technology, Bridget turns real-world insights into content that connects strategy, leadership and results.
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