Hence the idea of “vibes,” or the perception that economic sentiment is out of step with current conditions. And while those two things do look a bit unaligned at the beginning of August, a scan of second-quarter earnings reports and conference calls — along with a strengthening PMI report that Dutta was previewing on RenMac’s pod — provides a list of data points that suggest optimism among U.S. industrial executives looks like it’ll translate into stronger growth soon. For instance:

• Caterpillar’s order backlog as of June 30 stood at $72 billion, which was up a whopping 92% from a year earlier. Chairman and CEO Joe Creed got to tell investors and analysts that the company’s major segments — construction industries, resource industries and power/energy — all contributed to that growth and that the data center boom is powering a lot of activity: “No one is slowing down at the moment. In fact, if we can get more units out, they’re asking us to give them more units.”
• Executives at holding company Illinois Tool Works, which is on pace to top $16 billion in sales this year, raised their organic sales growth forecast by 150 points thanks to good trends from both commercial and industrial customers.
• At steel maker Nucor, President Steve Laxton told investors that demand is “broad enough and strong enough in enough channels” to power gains for several more years.
• Similarly, United Rentals President and CEO Matthew Flannery said customers from many corners of the economy are stepping up activity that needs his team’s equipment. The uptick, Flannery added, looks healthy enough to have him commit to more capital spending that’s “about feeding more demand because we’re running so hot from a time utilization perspective.”
• And, bridging the gap between manufacturing and the consumer, General Motors CEO Mary Barra said she’s not concerned that buyers are getting ready to check out because of affordability concerns. “It’s just not happening. We’re seeing really strong full-size truck demand and full-size utility, for that matter.”

It’s possible that the firms highlighted here are outliers on the positive side, that they’ve hit a sweet spot with their product portfolios and plant operations while their sales teams are cleaning up and grabbing market share. (At 3M, CEO Bill Brown did say his team’s recent gains are due more to internal efficiencies than a “pretty good” macro picture.) But the chances that they’re all doing so while succeeding across a wide range of sectors simultaneously seem slim. It’s more likely that the tailwinds their leaders cite are legitimate and have legs, an idea also backed by leaders of distributors Fastenal and MSC Industrial Direct.

The tone of many recent earnings calls and the state of things were summed up nicely on Aug. 4 by Conor Sen, founder of investment advisory firm Peachtree Creek Investments and a former Bloomberg Opinion columnist.

“Where I’m at on things: Strong demand for AI capex for at least 9-12 months minimum,” Sen wrote on X. “That gives enough time for the lagging cyclical/rate-sensitive industries (housing and even office) to inflect higher. That means the labor market will be solid. Which means consumption is fine.”

Onward and, it seems, for a good while longer, upward.