Confident C-Suites Face Up to a ‘Multidimensional Disruption’

How are you feeling, boss?

The war in and near Iran has become the latest shock to test leadership teams, and it’s doing so while clouds around tariffs specifically and inflation more generally continue to linger. Once again, CEOs and CFOs are facing a level of uncertainty that’s sharp and potentially pernicious enough to have them consider a change in plans.

And yet, there’s a solid silver lining to be found in the attitudes of many leaders early this year. A handful of recent surveys have been consistent in showing that many C-suites were growing more confident early this year in their outlooks, even if the broader 2026 economic picture wasn’t ebullient. And last week’s jobs report for March, which offset a soft February, suggests that confidence remains sturdy enough to translate into growth investments.

At a high level, an improving attitude showed itself in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ quarterly survey of business leaders: Asked how they see local economic conditions changing over the next 12 months, the respondents’ aggregate answers — which hovered around a net score of -20 for most of 2025 — moved into positive territory for the first time since November 2024.

Other research also showed that business sentiment was turning up or at least holding firm:

• Grant Thornton’s quarterly survey of more than 200 CFOs, conducted in early and mid-February, suggested a growing sense of calm. Just one in four executives, down from 31% in the fourth quarter, said they were pessimistic about the U.S. economy, while the share who were neutral rose to 29% from 17%. Also pointing to the idea that more leadership teams are comfortable with the state of their organizations is that a record 28% said they aren’t considering any cost cuts over the next six months. Similarly, a record-low-tying 29% said their businesses might lay off employees over that time.
• The quarterly CFO Survey from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Richmond and Atlanta Federal Reserve banks showed that optimism was on the rise when the researchers’ survey was in the field in late February and early March. That was the case for executives’ views of their company’s prospects as well as the broader economy. Notably, more than 57% of CFOs said they expect demand to climb in the next 12 months, an increase of more than 10 points from Q4. (Also worth pointing out, however, is that executives are now planning for average employment growth this year of 2.1%, down from the 2.4% they had in mind late last year.)
• Midsized companies were more upbeat than most early this year: The RSM US Middle Market Business Index, using data collected in the last three weeks of January, rose smartly from Q4 on the back of growing confidence from respondents that sales (68%) and profits (63%) would grow through the middle of summer. That optimism also surfaced in questions about capital spending and hiring — and the jobs attitude showed up in the most recent ADP National Employment Report, in which additions at businesses with 20 or fewer workers outweighed cuts at large firms.

How will things look come summer?

And now the caveat: All those surveys and other reports should be marked with large asterisks. War in the Middle East has roiled energy markets, and some experts are warning of major consequences later this year from a supply crunch in oil and gas and other products. That, economists at EY-Parthenon wrote late last month, is creating “a more complex and potentially more damaging headwind.”