Why Businesses Aren’t Rushing for Tariff Refunds

What stands out first is that most respondents are not moving quickly. Of the 430 people who answered this poll, only 32% said their business is already pursuing a refund or plans to do so soon or eventually. In contrast, 29% said they aren’t sure, 20% say it’s not worth it, and 19% have already decided against it. Together, that means nearly seven in 10 respondents are either undecided or unconvinced. This broad uncertainty suggests that the end of emergency tariffs may be less of a clean financial windfall and more of a question of capital an attention allocation for business leaders. 

Even among the 32% in the “yes” camp, conviction is limited: Only 11% said that their team is already on it, while the rest said they plan to get to it sooner or later. In other words, many business leaders see a potential opportunity, but relatively few appear to be treating it as an immediate finance, legal or operations priority. 

But the top-line results only tell part of the story. Once we break out the data by industry, it becomes clear that tariff exposure alone does not determine whether companies pursue refunds. Rather, sector economics, internal resources and bandwidth, and the perceived payoff appear to matter just as much.

So, let’s get into the individual industries: Manufacturing accounted for the largest share of respondents (26%), followed by construction (12%), with technology/software/telecom, automotive, healthcare and others trailing, as shown in the breakdown in the chart below.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing is arguably among the sectors most exposed to tariffs, materials costs and supply-chain volatility. When we filtered those responses, we found a more action-oriented subgroup than the overall sample. While only 32% of overall respondents said they are already pursuing a refund or expect to do so, that figure rises to 51% among manufacturing leaders. Only 20% of manufacturers have ruled it out compared to 39% of all respondents. At the same time, the sector is not exactly settled: 29% of respondents said they’re still not sure — the same share as the overall sample. This suggests manufacturing leaders are not fully decided so much as more motivated (perhaps financially?) to keep open their refund option.

Construction

Construction leaders tell a very different story. Despite being another sector heavily exposed to materials costs and supply-chain disruptions, construction leaders appear far more skeptical and less prepared to act than their manufacturing peers. In fact, not a single construction respondent said their team is already filing for a tariff refund, and only 15% said they plan to get it done soon or eventually. Meanwhile, 40% said they are unsure and 45% do not plan to seek a refund. The contrast with manufacturing is striking: One tariff-exposed sector appears to view refunds as a worthwhile opportunity while the other seems much less convinced the effort will pay off.

Technology

The technology sector lands somewhere between manufacturing’s urgency and construction’s hesitation. While 39% of tech respondents said they are already pursuing a refund or expect to do so, only 7% said their team is already on it. This suggests that many tech companies view refunds as worth exploring but not important enough to warrant immediate internal attention. And once again, uncertainty remains a major theme: 29% said they are still unsure whether they will file.

Automotive

Switching gears to the automotive industry, respondents look more open to filing than the overall sample, with 38% saying they are already pursuing a refund or expect to do so. But what stands out most is that automotive leaders appear more resolved than uncertain. Only 24% said they’re not sure, below the 29% overall, while 38% said they have no plans to file. This suggests many automotive companies may have already assessed the likely payoff and reached a firmer yes-or-no decision than peers in other sectors.

The other industries represented in this poll — including healthcare, energy and utilities, processing, electrical, professional services, and retail/consumer goods — did not generate a large enough response base to support meaningful analysis. Even so, their presence in the broader sample underscores the bigger picture: The end of emergency tariffs is not producing a uniform corporate response. For executives, the question is not simply whether tariff refunds are available, but whether the return justifies the internal time, legal cost and operational effort required to pursue them.