In short: There’s no panic but rather a strong sense among CFOs that they know what to do in the faces of higher energy costs and supply-chain upheaval. After dealing with a series of disruptions this decade, muscle memory has grown strong.

Executives plan more hiring, capital spending and AI investment

A handful of data points from other recent surveys reflect a growing sense of confidence. The theme here is "more."

• More hiring: The roughly 500 CFOs who contributed to the latest quarterly report from the Duke Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve banks of Richmond and Atlanta now plan to increase their payrolls by an average of 4.7%, up from 3.6% three months ago. And they intend to follow that up with employment growth of 2.4% in 2027.
• More profits: 80% of CFOs responding to Grant Thornton’s quarterly report are forecasting profit growth over the next 12 months — an all-time high for the series, which goes back nearly five years. And nearly half of that group thinks their business’s bottom lines will grow at least 10%.
• More capex: Beyond the largest companies, optimism is also rising. Nearly 70% of the roughly 500 executives who contributed to the latest RSM U.S. Middle Market Business Index said they expect both sales and earnings to climb over the next six months. And they’re showing a continued willingness to invest in long-term growth: 57% of firm leaders told RSM researchers they increased their capital expenditures during the third quarter while 65% said they plan to do so in the next six months. “This is the most encouraging long-term trend we have observed in the middle market in the survey’s decade-long history,” Joe Brusuelas, RSM’s chief economist, wrote.
• More success with AI: Grant Thornton’s report also showed that a whopping 40% of CFOs now see their organizations’ investment in AI exceeding expectations while another 44% said their AI ROI is on track. Sumeet Mahajan, a partner in the firm’s AI & Data group, said on an Oct. 6 webcast that context is key with this finding since the definition of success with AI may vary widely may differ widely from one company to the next. But the direction is clear: Many businesses are quickly moving from the experimentation phase into one that is producing real results with clear financial benefits.

Inflation and geopolitical risks still threaten the 2027 outlook

So is it clear sailing for 2027 and beyond? C-suites are by no means ready to commit to that scenario.

Inflation remains a pain in the neck for many firms: Three-quarters of leaders responding to RSM’s survey said they expect the prices they pay to keep rising through most of next year. Executives who spoke with U.S. Bank said geopolitical tension and war pose the biggest risk to their businesses. And 44% of respondents to the latest EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook said heightened macroeconomic volatility is likely to be their main headwind in the coming year.

“The geopolitical angle is still there,” said Saridakis, who broadly sees the economic environment as being solid through 2030. “It’s the only thing that can dismantle the optimism.”

Not surprisingly, higher financing costs aare alsorising on the list of heartburn factors since the Federal Open Market Committee has raised its benchmark rate and its members have talked of more hikes. The Duke/Fed survey now has monetary policy as CFOs’ top concern, up from fifth in the second quarter.

The takeaway: Leadership teams should remain on guard against external pressures like the ones they’ve had to regularly deal with since the beginning of the 2020s. But they also should be confident in their ability to weather those shocks while investing and growing. It’s becoming crystal clear that many of their competitors are.