Heard on the Street: A Growing Sense of Unease About Price Pressures
Key Highlights
- Executives at airlines, automakers and manufacturers have been calling out fuel, commodities and healthcare as significant cost pressures in the second half of this year.
- Some companies are warning that inflation could persist into 2027 while others are withholding detailed forecasts amid volatile conditions.
- A silver lining for many firms is that strong demand is helping them pass along most of their higher costs.
The dam appears to have given way when it comes to Corporate America discussing persistent rises in input and operating costs.
Comments about inflation that not long ago were rather overarching and delivered in soothing, things-should-be-OK-soon tones are now arriving from almost every corner of the economy with urgency and few assurances that we’re nearing the end of the tunnel.
From economic data points to various 2027 forecasts and public companies discussing their third-quarter earnings and outlook, the tone has changed. It’s not panic or alarm, but the combination of data and commentary is creating a growing sense of unease about what inflation will do to companies through the first half of next year.
Some of the recent headlines and reports worth pointing out here include:
- The team at trucking fleet technology provider SpaceHawk GPS is forecasting that diesel prices should soon start retreating from their stratospheric level but adds that they won’t get back to $5 per gallon — which would still be 44% above January’s level — until the middle of next summer.
- The Associated Builders and Contractors picked apart the federal government’s latest producer price index and calculated that construction input prices rose 2.2% in September compared to August — a month during which they had climbed 2.3% versus July.
- Human capital consultancy Mercer says employers’ health benefit costs per employee will climb 8.2% in 2027. That would be the fastest pace in more than two decades.
What executives are saying about inflation and rising costs heading into 2027
charts_blue_67569652_bluebay2014_dreamstime
arrows_2_145304103_christian_horz_dreamstimeThe Q3 earnings season has delivered a similar-sounding drumbeat from a wide range of companies. Energy inflation has unsurprisingly been a regular topic: Trucking company Werner Enterprises said “rapidly rising fuel prices” were among the reasons it needed to warn about its results ahead of time and United Air Lines Holdings CEO Scott Kirby said higher fuel prices would cost his team an extra $8 billion this year and predicted that more than half of U.S. airlines will lose money in 2026 because of expensive jet fuel.
Beyond that, executive teams have been pointing out other drivers of rising costs. Some examples:
- UnitedHealth Group’s management team said the costs of the care they’re paying for “remain stubbornly high” even if they might be stabilizing as we head toward 2027. A prominent problem, the United team contends, is that certain doctors are abusing the arbitration process of a law meant to stop patients from being walloped by surprise medical costs.
- General Motors executives said recently that pricier commodities, semiconductors and shipping services will cost the automaker $2 billion more than initially expected this year. CFO Paul Jacobson said the pain could last well into 2027: “If we were to simply annualize the recent incremental commodity inflation since July, it would translate into an additional $1 billion to $1.5 billion of EBIT-adjusted headwind for 2027.”
- Not as willing to ballpark the potential tab of raw material inflation were the leaders of Illinois Tool Works. CFO Michael Larsen told analysts that, “like everyone else, we continue to see a lot of inflation in raw material costs, such as resin, chemicals, steel, electronic components kind of in that 4% to 5% range.” But he was less forward about what that might mean for ITW’s margins beyond saying that the company was able to push a little more price in the third quarter than the cost increases it needed to digest: “Just given the very kind of dynamic conditions here, we’re going to refrain from providing more detail on Q3 and Q4.”
- Fuel, freight and healthcare are mentioned most times during today’s inflation conversations. Word of a sneakier input to watch in coming months came from Genuine Parts, the parent of NAPA and the Motion industrial distribution business. Chief Financial and Operating Officer Bert Nappier mentioned freight pressures but also pointed to real estate getting pricier: “The rent expense pressure is really coming out of […] renewals happening in a post-COVID period. We’re seeing those being elevated versus when they were negotiated five years ago, six years ago.”
How strong demand is helping companies offset inflation pressures
There is a silver lining to these persistent price pressures. Today’s inflation is being accompanied, and in some cases being produced, by an industrial economy that’s gathering momentum and spending money on new factories, upgraded equipment and mountains of raw materials. And consumer spending is holding up enough to have United Airlines’ Kirby be confident in demand and his team’s ability to be “much more rational” about pricing the carrier’s tickets.
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chart_167749008_engdao_wichitpunya_dreamstimeThe ability to pass along to customers higher input prices — at least for now — has been a near-universal talking point on Q3 earnings calls so far. That wouldn’t be possible without demand that is strong and even strengthening in some cases.
Larsen and ITW President and CEO Chris O’Herlihy told analysts that orders have been growing nicely across the company’s many business lines. O’Herlihy said growth has been very strong “not just on the industrial side in areas like energy, aerospace, construction fabrication and so on, but also on the commercial side on small fab. Similarly, with Test & Measurement, obviously, [semiconductor demand] has been strong for a little while now but we’re now starting to see a real nice pickup on the industrial side of the business as well.”
Honeywell Technologies is another company that plays in a lot of end markets that reflect where much of the global economy is headed. Chairman and CEO Vimal Kapur last week told investors their outlook for 2027 is “robust” and built on continued investment in energy infrastructure as well as building and industrial automation. Fourth-quarter orders, they added, should be up nearly 10% from late last year.
Strong demand is giving Kapur and his team the ability to raise prices and offset the 4.5% inflation they think Honeywell will need to absorb over the second half of this year. But, Kapur told analysts on Oct. 22, there’s more to succeeding in this environment than just asking clients for more money.
“The pricing attainment doesn’t require only the action of pricing, but it requires good customer service, good customer communication, a good pipeline of new product,” he said. “I think that comprehensive, 360-degree view is what we have really adopted to attain the price and keep the price-cost positive.”
It’s a worthy reminder to cover all the bases — as it seems inflation is doing these days.
About the Author
Geert De LombaerdeGeert De Lombaerde
Contributor
A native of Belgium, Geert De Lombaerde joined EndeavorB2B in September 2021 to cover public companies, markets, and economic trends primarily for IndustryWeek, FleetOwner, Oil & Gas Journal, T&D World, and Healthcare Innovation. His work focuses on strategy, leadership, capital spending, and mergers and acquisitions, and he also works with Endeavor Business Intelligence on surveys and data projects.
Geert has been in business journalism since the mid-1990s. With a degree in journalism from the University of Missouri, he began his reporting career at the Business Courier in Cincinnati, initially covering retail and the courts before shifting to banking, insurance, and investing. He later was managing editor and editor of the Nashville Business Journal before being named editor of the Nashville Post in 2008. He led a team that helped grow the Post's online traffic by an average of more than 15% annually before joining Endeavor.
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