Crucial to avoiding such a nightmare scenario, said Wright: Having humans on the front end and the back end of the process and in between, checking and controlling the work. And those people should contribute from many different divisions of the company beyond finance. Wright said this is a clear instance where “having more up-front thinking by a larger group of people is better.”
The experts at PwC have the same advice. As crucial as great risk management is to organizations, their leaders can’t fully automate the task. Bringing AI to bear in finance and risk management is about enlarging the scope and depth of the work in that fuzzy area where reporting, forecasting and scenario planning meet. It’s about adding analysis and walking through possible responses at a scale that would be tricky to staff for and whose costs would be difficult to justify.
“Effective scenario planning requires domain expertise and judgment from business, policy, geopolitical, cyber, risk, and operational leaders, combined with AI-enabled models and digital twins,” PwC analysts wrote. “This combination can help companies see disruptions earlier, model effects on a key node, supplier, or input, and bring timely intelligence closer to the CEO and board.”
Small Bites and Honeycombs: How to Structure Your Approach
If you read that and thought your team is well behind in adoption, you’re not. PwC’s research shows that only 23% of CEOs say their teams have used AI to identify how possible changes in their supply bases, swings in commodity prices or changes in demand might affect their operations. Even in the still-new world of AI, this area still feels quite unexplored.
So how to embark on your AI journey in risk management? Wright says it’s important to set high-level goals first: Is the primary goal of any project to cut costs or speed up processes? From there, he said, the leadership teams getting this right are often following this three-step process:
- Decide on key performance indicators
- Quickly measure the progress being made
- Just as quickly decide if you’ll run that process elsewhere and, if so, where
This “honeycombing” approach is not revolutionary, but it works well in the current AI environment, when returns on investment are tricky to calculate — a recent Protiviti report showed that 65% of finance organizations rate their ability to measure the ROI on their AI initiatives as “less than effective” — and new model iterations can substantively change what’s available and possible. In Wright’s view, the cycle is quicker than other investment decisions, and success comes in bite-sized portions.