The fourth quarter is here, and that means B2B executives are tackling a familiar annual exercise: putting together business plans and strategies for the year ahead. What’s different this time around is that the highly anticipated November 3 midterm elections are just weeks away.

The results could change the political landscape just as organizations finalize their budgets and set priorities for 2027. Add inflation, high borrowing costs and a steady stream of economic and geopolitical news to the uncertainty equation, and companies are building annual budgets around economic assumptions that could change following the November elections.

A recent PwC analysis lays out three ways the midterms could play out:

• Democrats gain control of the House while Republicans retain the Senate, potentially increasing congressional oversight and legislative gridlock;
• Democrats win both chambers, prompting the administration to rely more heavily on executive action and regulatory measures; or
• Republicans maintain control of Congress, allowing the current administration to continue pursuing its existing policies. 

Since no one has a crystal ball, PwC advises executives to prepare for each possibility now and to assess how potential policy changes could affect their operations, customers and business plans for 2027. 

That thinking seems to be taking hold in the C-suite. According to Chief Executive's latest CEO Confidence Index, organizational leaders are factoring politics, government policy and economic uncertainty into their 2027 outlooks. Some expect the midterms to bring greater stability, while others are concerned with changes in congressional control and increased regulation. 

How the 2026 midterms could affect business costs and regulations

Regardless of how CEOs feel about the coming year, politics and government policy are clearly influencing business expectations right now. The Index found that 31% of CEOs anticipating better business conditions cited those concerns, compared with 36% forecasting a downturn (and 28% anticipating little change). 

Those concerns extend well beyond Election Day itself. Any major shift in congressional control could affect the legislative outlook throughout 2027, potentially influencing business costs, regulatory requirements and investment decisions.

Julio Briones and his clients are keeping a close eye on the regulatory piece right now. He’s the founder and CEO of Briones Consulting Group, which works with homecare agencies to improve operations, develop policies and procedures, and meet licensing and accreditation requirements. They’re also watching metrics like fuel prices in an industry where caregivers work remotely and visit multiple clients daily. 

“The higher the gas prices, the more difficult it becomes to manage as a budget line item,” Briones says. “You can’t expect someone to cover a 2-hour shift when the amount you're paying them for that time doesn’t even cover a tank of gas.”

Briones is also keeping things in perspective. Yes, homecare is a heavily regulated industry with government licensing and operating requirements, but even a major shift come Election Day will take time to translate into new laws, requirements or compliance issues.

“Don't assume any drastic, immediate shifts one way or the other,” Briones says. “It's not like you're going to change the Senate, change the House, and then all of a sudden everything is different on December 1. That’s not how it works.” 

Why executives are planning for multiple election outcomes

From Paul Melville's perspective, the midterms are just one more item on an already-crowded C-suite agenda. Executives are already dealing with tariffs, AI, geopolitical conflicts and other issues that complicate planning. Now they have to consider what a potential shift in congressional control could mean for their companies.

“This is just another thing that the C-suite has to deal with,” says Melville, chief growth officer at Grant Thornton Advisors. The good news is that companies have gotten pretty good at dealing with uncertainty. Grant Thornton's CFO surveys suggest finance executives remain resilient even as business conditions shift.

For example, they're evaluating potential election outcomes, assessing their cash flow needs and determining how quickly they could respond to different scenarios. “Change is becoming business as usual,” says Melville, “and speed is the driver of everything.”

On a positive note, the midterms could also create opportunities, depending on the industry and the outcome. New or revised federal policies could affect borrowing costs, for example, potentially opening the door to new acquisitions or expansion.  

How to stress-test your 2027 budget for election uncertainty

Right now, Melville says executives should be testing different scenarios and determining how their companies would respond. The focus should be on:

• Making sure your financial and operational data is ready to use. Know where the information is, how quickly it can be retrieved and how easily it can be used across different models. “If you don't have it in the right format, then doing all this becomes really difficult and very manual,” Melville says.
• Building multiple financial models to test potential election outcomes. Test potential election outcomes against variables specific to your industry, including tariffs, interest rates, currency exchange rates and supply chain costs. Assess the impact on cash flow and investment plans. You can use AI to run more predictive models, says Melville, and ask outside advisors to review the assumptions behind your forecasts to identify anything you may have missed.
• Putting someone in charge of execution. Decide who will act on the results of those models and how quickly the company can respond. Too often, companies go through the planning exercise, agree on the numbers and then get distracted by other priorities. The questions to ask are: Who's going to drive this forward? Who's taking the action? And, who's going to make the hard decisions? 

Melville sees a lot of executives getting hung up on that last one as analysis paralysis sets in. “Companies have a lot of information and forecasting tools at their disposal,” he adds, “but executives still have to act on what the numbers are telling them.”

Build a 2027 business plan with room for the unexpected

Briones wanted to hire additional staff last month, but he pushed those hires back to mid-January to see what happens with the elections. He already has new positions factored into his 2027 budget — with the costs already accounted for — but wants to see how the elections play out before making any moves. 

He's also borrowing a page from a former New Jersey prosecutor who, when preparing a case, gathered his team to discuss how the opposing side might defend itself before deciding how to proceed. Briones now encourages executives to take a similar approach to business planning: 

• Picture yourself on December 1, 2027, reflecting on the last 12 months.
• Where do you want your company to be at that point?
• Working backward, establish quarterly goals and develop alternate plans for any roadblocks that might stand in your way.

“If you're looking at your business and want to grow by 30% over the next year, ask yourself what environmental, internal and external factors could stop you from achieving that?” he says. “Then, build plans that will help you address those obstacles and hit that end-of-year target.”